1 big thing … Exclusive polls: Big warning signs for Senate Dems


A series of 10 state polls for Axios by SurveyMonkey finds that President Trump isn’t a drag on the Republican brand in key Senate races, despite his historically high national disapproval ratings.

  • Trump’s approval is higher than Democratic senators up for reelection in six of the states (Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio and West Virginia).
  • Trump’s approval is higher than his national approval rating in all 10 states.

Five Senate Democrats would lose to a Republican candidate if the election were held today and three have approval ratings under 50%, according to new Axios/SurveyMonkey polls. 

  • Why it matters: Democrats are defending 10 Senate seats in states Trump won in 2016. In six of those states Trump’s approval is higher than 50% (compared to 43% nationally). These numbers underscore how hard it will be for Democrats to pick up the two seats needed to win the majority despite Trump’s troubles. 

The three most vulnerable senators in the 10 states are Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester of Montana and Claire McCaskill of Missouri. Each of their approval ratings is under or around 50%, while Trump’s is well above that in all three states.

  • The least vulnerable senators in the 10 states are Democrats Bill Nelson of Florida, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Trump’s approval is at just 46% in Florida and Pennsylvania and 54% in Ohio.

But, but, but… with the election many months away and final Republican opponents not set, these numbers are likely to change as real GOP challengers get involved in the race. The approval ratings of each senator may give a better idea of where they stand with voters in their states.